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A team from Washinton University in St. Louis determined the spread rate of the COVID infection over the next two months using a forecasting model; the study was published in the journal Scientific Reports according to Court House News Service on Nov. 25, 2020.
Researchers who are well known for giving a correct prediction about the coronavirus this past summer warns that the number of COVID cases could double by the time President-Elect Joe Biden is sworn in at the inauguration. The study model predicted that about 20 million cases of COVID by the end of January, which is a major increase from the 12.3 million reported cases in the country.
Raphael Thomadsen, a professor of marketing at the University of Washington, believes that the main reason for the increasing accuracy of the model over other COVID forecasts is that this model accounts for the fact that people live interconnection social networks rather than interacting with random groups of strangers.
This allows the model to forecast that growth will not continue at exponential rates for long periods of time, as classic COVID forecasts predict, Said Thomadsen.
The University also warns that if businesses and schools are mostly open and people do not practice proper social distancing and go out in public without wearing masks, this will cause the numbers to increase.
President-Elect transition team and public health experts ask the White House to allow the incoming administration more access to internal data so they can start on a COVID response plan ahead of the inauguration, which will take place on Jan. 20, 2021.
Written by Jessica Letcher
Edited by Cathy Milne-Ware
Sources:
Courthouse News Service:Forecast: Covid Cases Could Double by Inauguration Day; by Jon Parton
Salon: A reliable pandemic forecasting model says cases will nearly double by Inauguration Day; by Matthew Rozsa
Daily Mail: US coronavirus cases could nearly DOUBLE to 20 million by the time of President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration in January, scientists predict; by Natalie Rahhal
Featured and Top Image Courtesy of Elvert Barnes’s Flickr Page – Creative Commons License
Inset Image Courtesy of Elvert Barnes’s Flickr Page – Creative Commons License
